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panxing18 Offline



Beiträge: 167

26.07.2019 02:50
Elo sez the 2018 White Sox were the fourth-w Antworten

orst team across all sports Sparky Anderson Jersey , and ended in the franchise’s worst shape in more than 38 years"Forgive the intrusion into our free agent dreaming, Eloy Jimnez Rookie of the Year/MVP mashups and Luis Robert September cups of coffee, but the estimable stat nerds at FiveThiryEight have issued some fightin’ words.Actually, they’re not fighting words at all, but stat-based evaluations with zero bias and methodolo...zzzzz.....zzzzzzzzzzz.Anyway, the crux of the biscuit is that the White Sox are the fourth worst team in all of sports.No, not just in baseball, but the NBA, NFL, NHL, and to rub it in a bit more, men’s college basketball and football.FiveThirtyEightThe methodology used to determine these rankings across sports that play different season lengths, and so on, are detailed in the linked article above. The meat of the ratings themselves are something FiveThirtyEight dubs each team’s Elo Rating (again, explained in the link but for baseball coming down to “home-field advantage, margin of victory, park and era effects, travel, rest and — most importantly — starting pitchers”)And one thing the Elo Rating showed in 2018 Jack Morris Jersey , is that tanking has reached epidemic proportions: five of the 21 worst baseball seasons since 2000 fell in 2018.Historically, where does this put the White Sox? Elo Ratings don’t end up varying terribly from simple won-loss percentage, or placement in division or league standings, of course. But just like home runs and RBIs might not tell the whole story of a player’s value vs. a more intricate stat like WAR, winning percentage bears a somewhat similar, simpler relationship to Elo.The 2018 White Sox ended with their lowest Elo Rating of the season on the last, 100th loss-clinching, day of the season, September 30: 1442.On June 18, 1989, after a 7-4 loss to the Boston Red Sox that dropped the team to 24-44, the White Sox dipped to a 1449 Elo. Close, but not quite.You have to go all the way back more than 38 years, to a 7-1 loss vs. the Oakland A’s on Sept. 24, 1980, to match that 1442 Elo the White Sox ended 2018 with.And you need to dial back a few more seasons still, to the end of the 1976 season (Oct. 3, 1976, a 3-0 loss vs. the Texas Rangers that dropped the club to 64-97) to come up with a lower Elo: 1437.There aren’t many lower points than the end of 2018 Michael Fulmer Jersey , Elo-wise, in White Sox history.Bad Elos beyond 1976:1412 after a 9-3 loss to the Washington Senators on Sept. 12, 1932, dropping the White Sox to 43-95.1421 after a 5-4 loss vs. the California Angels on Oct. 1, 1970, ending the season at 56-106.1422 after a 12-10 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Sept. 26, 1934, dropping the White Sox to 51-96.1426 after a 4-0 loss to the St. Louis Browns on Oct. 1, 1948, ending the White Sox season at 49-101.(In several instances, particularly in the early 1930s, the White Sox had several Elo scores lower than 1442 over the course of the season; I merely picked the lowest ebb during those runs.)Otherwise, the White Sox have never really had Elo scores anywhere near as low as 1442. There were some high 1440s in the early 1900s, but really, what we witnessed in 2018 was pretty near historically bad work from the White Sox.In other words, it’s Yasmani Grandal time, with a side of Manny Machado or Bryce Harper! Should you be optimistic about Yuli improving in 2019?"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections Houston Astros NewsGame ThreadsHouston Astros Minor LeaguesAstros Game DayPodcastsReason for optimism for Yuli in 2019New,15commentsShould you be optimistic about Yuli improving in 2019?CSTShareTweetShareShareReason for optimism for Yuli in 2019Yuli has now had 2.5 years in the Majors at this point, including a rough transition to the MLB while shaking off the rust from his time off during the transition of changing citizenship out of Cuba. In his 2.5 years Leonys Martin Jersey , Yuli has accumulated a .291/.323/.449 and 110 wRC+ career across his 1,274 MLB Plate Appearances. The 110 wRC+ would rank 18th out of 39 Qualified Batters at 1st base, which grades out as roughly league average over the past 3 years. With 2 years left on his deal, especially as an aging 34 year old, you may be a bit disappointed in the overall value the Astros have received and not be particularly optimistic about his future. Especially as you look at the projections which have him slotted for regression to the tune of .284/.320/.437 for a 109 wRC+ So why would I feel comfortable with the prediction that a 34 year old player would perform above his 3-year average, and above his 2018 rate results? The largest factor is due to a broken hamate bone that he recovered from in the 2018 season. What is the Hamate bone and why does it matter?The eight bones in the wrist are known as the Carpal, same ones related to the commonly diagnosed Carpal Tunnel Syndrome. One of the eight small bones of the wrist, the hamate bone is unique with a protruding part in the palm that is shaped like a hook.This bone is susceptible to injuries related to grip, and thus common in sports such as baseball and golf. What are the effects of a Broken Hamate Bone? Generally the Hamate bone is removed, and the recovery time is listed as roughly 4-6 weeks for the wound to heal. There does seem to be an effect of loss of power associated with the surgery. Luckily, our sister site did a good analysison the injury and found the following result: “Overall, it appears that with time, player’s who succumb to a hamate injury will find themselves back to previous power numbers upon their return to play, though it will probably take roughly a full season of at bats to do so. Of course a number of other factors could predispose a player to not bounce back quite as quickly or as robustly—age of injury, previous injury history, and even the time it took for correct diagnosis and treatment approach all play potential roles—but compared to other upper extremity injuries, the outlook for a full return to health and hitting power with the hamate fracture is generally promising.”Interestingly, the National Center for Biotechnology Information (part of NIH) did a study as welland found: “MLB players sustaining hook of hamate fractures can reasonably expect to return to their preinjury performance levels following operative treatment.”“There was no significant change in Wins Above Replacement or isolated power when preinjury and postinjury performance were compared. “Looking at 2017So if we consider 2018 to be a recovery year, let’s take a closer look at 2017 http://www.tigersfanproshop.com/authentic-joe-jimenez-jersey , in which Yuli had his best season of his MLB career. In 2017, Yuli hit .299/.332/.486 which was good for a 119 wRC+, which at a premium offensive position is still relatively average for production. His BABIP of .308 shows that the results were not BABIP luck dependent. Taking a look, his wOBA (.345) and xWOBA (.332) show a slight amount of luck, but nothing that screams that it was luck driven. Yuli was actually faster in Sprint Speed in 2018 (27.6) than 2017 (26.9), but both rank above average, which I think many fans don’t realize, clocking in at 0.1 ft/second slower than George Springer/Josh Reddick and at the same speed as Tony Kemp. In average time from home plate to first, he stays with players not generally considered slow Yuli (4.33) Springer (4.32), Correa (4.32) Bregman (4.31) and is faster than players like Marwin Gonzalez (4.40 / 26/4).What is my Projection? Well, I started with the Hamate bone injury, which makes it a fairly easy prediction. But there’s a little more to it than that. Over the past 3 years, Yuli has improved his miniscule BB%. Getting your walk percent all the way up to a whopping 4% is rather unremarkable in itself. With that he has continued to improve his contact rates, reduce his GB rates and improve his LD rates from the previous year. It took a bit for Yuli to get familiar with MLB pitching, but I think he will overachieve expectations.So my projection for Yuli will be .295/.340/.490 for 2 WAR in 2018. Let me know your thoughts, do you think Yuli will achieve this line? What is your prediction?

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